After 10 straight quarters of challenging affordability in Canada, it’s clear that mortgage rate relief isn’t coming to the rescue—at least, not anytime soon. The spotlight is shifting to home prices and income growth as the main factors that will drive change. Over the next year, most economists anticipate mortgage rates will either hold steady or increase slightly. That means real affordability progress will depend on whether we see home prices level off.
For those of us in Calgary, the story looks different than in Vancouver or Toronto—every conversation I have with clients is shaped by our unique market and what buyers and sellers are actually up against here. Slower population growth is expected to cool housing demand and help keep prices in check, while a gradually improving labour market should give local household incomes a bit of a boost. But without consistent moderation in home prices, any gains in affordability may be limited.
Eighteen years in Calgary real estate has taught me how quickly the market can shift—and why each buyer and seller needs a strategy tailored to what’s happening right here, right now.
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